I had no idea what to expect from a talk titled “Lowest-Low
Fertility: A theory of normative rigidity and economic context” but judging by
the packed room, a number of people were interested in hearing Mary C. Brinton,
the chair of Harvard’s sociology department, discuss this topic.
What is “lowest-low” fertility? A country’s total fertility rate
of 1.3 or fewer births per woman is considered lowest-low. Of course, low
fertility is not a problem for the planet overall, but for individual countries
fertility far below replacement rate has serious implications – a rapidly aging
population and a shrinking labor force among them.
So why are some developed, post-industrial countries experiencing
lowest-low fertility and others are not? For instance, the United States does
not have “lowest-low” fertility, but Japan does, even though Japan has better
child care options and ostensibly more family-friendly policies. Low fertility
doesn’t even correlate with female labor force participation. In fact, it
appears that countries with high percentage of women working actually have
normal fertility rates.
If it’s not working women and it’s not government policies,
what is driving down fertility in some well-to-do nations? Perhaps it is
culture.
Professor Brinton and her team set out to test this
hypothesis. Utilizing data from the global attitudes survey, they isolated the
gender-role perceptions through answers to questions like “A woman needs
children to be fulfilled” and “Men have more rights to jobs when jobs are
scarce.” They discerned three broad clusters among 24 post-industrial countries
– those with predominantly “conservative” attitudes, reflecting the male
breadwinner-female caregiver model, and then “egalitarian” or “caregiver
egalitarian” countries.
Professor Brinton’s analysis demonstrates that predominance
of male breadwinner-female caregiver attitudes correlates significantly with
low fertility rates. The quantitative model controls for the economic
well-being of the countries and includes other potential factors that affect
fertility, such as unemployment among young males.
This means changing a culture of gender inequality and breaking down attitudes that perpetuate rigid gender norms is in the best interest of any post-industrial country concerned about its rapidly shrinking and aging population. If only changing culture were easy...
No comments:
Post a Comment